Making the Shift
Changing gear in the journey towards sustainable mobility
Despite progress in public transport, cycling, and shared mobility, cars still dominate urban travel.
The ‘Future of Mobility 5.0’ study by Arthur D. Little and POLIS highlights solutions like policy reform, demand management, and public-private collaboration to accelerate the shift towards sustainable mobility, overcome barriers, and move towards effective implementation.
Looking back to 2010, there was much optimism that by now we would have moved a long way towards the goal of more sustainable, resilient, safe, efficient, and human-centric mobility systems in our cities. The rapid advances of digitalisation, connectivity, and automation, promised the ability to deliver mobility solutions to citizens that would be attractive enough to prompt a major shift away from individual cars. Fourteen years on and things have not quite happened that way. We can all see the progress in the growth of public transport, walking and cycling, and ‘new mobility’ solutions such as shared and owned e-bikes, e-scooters, car-sharing, and ride-hailing. However, 35% of all trips are still made by individual cars, representing about 70% and 90% of passenger-km (Pax-km) in urban and rural areas respectively.
At best, we have witnessed an evolution—certainly not a revolution. In response, Arthur D. Little and POLIS recently issued a major study, The Future of Mobility 5.0’, which delves into the various issues and solutions to shift gears and accelerate progress towards sustainable mobility (see Figure 1).
Eight solutions reviewed as part of the Future of Mobility 5.0 study, Arthur D. Little
Reshaping mobility by shifting mentality
Today, addressing climate change effectively remains challenging due to difficulties in adopting long-term, adequately integrated policies that drive real progress towards climate change mitigation and net zero. While many policies focus on electrification, this is not enough—not only given the slow turnover of individual cars, but also because other negative externalities linked to transport, such as noise and air pollution, congestion and road safety, equally require active intervention. A more joined-up, holistic policy approach is needed, where the shift to greener propulsion is complemented by a modal shift away from private cars and toward more sustainable modes, together with strategies to reduce overall travel demand.
Moreover, reshaping mobility behaviours also requires rethinking public spaces, after decades of car-centric transport policies and urban planning.The ‘city of proximity’ concept, such as the ’15-minute city’ introduced by Carlos Moreno in 2016, aims to enable more sustainable, liveable, and healthier cities, by ensuring essential services are close to citizens. While there are already some successful examples, city authorities must scale up the concept, adapting it to cater for how digitalisation has changed citizens’ needs for proximity, and focusing on measuring systemic, rather than just local, impacts.
Public transport, New Mobility Solutions, and MaaS
Arthur D. Little
Public transport (PT) remains the backbone of a virtuous mobility system. Authorities must prioritise smarter transport mode allocation through the development of multi-modal masterplans that rank transport services according to their performance and affordability. This means complementing public transport with active and micro-mobility services for less than 5 km trips and shared and on-demand motorised mobility—like car-sharing, taxis, and ride-hailing—for longer distance travel and lower-density areas where investment in mass transit is not justified. Nevertheless, our researches suggest that there is still large room to expand mass transit infrastructure around the world, including in Europe, to match the needs.
Micromobility services, especially e-scooters, e-bikes, and bikes, either shared or owned, enjoy relatively high demand and willingness to pay and are often used in combination with public transport to meet door-to-door travel needs. There is also a demand for car-sharing and ride-hailing mobility services to support ‘multimodal’ travel needs, involve using different modes for different journeys and needs, both within and outside of cities. Mass transit operators and shared new mobility services providers share a common goal of reducing usage of private cars by default for all trips. Rather than merely focusing on regulation, authorities should foster partnerships with new mobility service providers, integrating them into the broader transport landscape.
The Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) concept, which allows consumers to plan, book, pay for, and access various mobility services through a single digital platform, has been a prominent innovation in mobility over the last decade. However, most current MaaS implementations have adopted a one-size-fits-all, technology-centric approach, that fails to adequately address the specific needs of users, service providers, or authorities. MaaS needs to evolve beyond serving as an 'umbrella app' for existing services by providing added value—such as enhanced system-level functions that benefit both users and cities, catering to specific target groups, e.g. tourists or private car owners, and supporting broader mobility goals by suggesting, for example, routes that favour sustainable modes.
Opportunities ahead
Autonomous mobility will eventually be part of our cities and regions in the future and its deployment could help solve some of today’s pressing issues, such as driver shortages, safety concerns, and the need to serve remote areas.
However, its full benefits will only be realised through connected vehicles in smart traffic systems, not individual automated vehicles. Manufacturers must develop technologies to better integrate with these systems.
Automated bus rapid transit systems on dedicated lanes and automated bus operations in depots are ‘low-hanging fruits’ that can be implemented ahead of the ‘holy grail’ of automated vehicles operating at large in mixed traffic.
Mobility demand and access management have much more impact on people’s readiness to give up personal cars than the actual availability of alternative mobility services. Out of 40 potential demand management measures, our study identified several ‘sweet spot’ measures that combine high impact and feasibility. These include car-free zones, freight transport restrictions, parking regulations and pricing, intermodal mobility hubs, MaaS apps, and marketing strategies that promote sustainable mobility. Corporations, as major traffic generators, also have a key role to play in encouraging sustainable mobility behaviours among their employees.
Achieving sustainable mobility goals will require significant additional funding, whether for expanding mass transit, implementing more light mobility lanes, electrifying fleets, or providing charging infrastructure. Diversifying to identify new sources of revenue is crucial, as well as seeking new funding sources and exploring innovative public-private partnerships.
On the revenue side of the equation, effective fare policies—typically generating 30 to 50% of total revenues—or exploring subscription models within a broader MaaS framework are options, too. On the expenditure side, transport authorities need to focus on maximising the cost-effectiveness of capital investments alongside operational efficiency measures, such as improving service appeal through time competitiveness. At the end of the day, the option of increasing the cost of car usage (that could be used to fund public transit) should not be taboo.
Making the shift happen
Our analysis leads us to conclude that, with comprehensive implementation, appropriate funding, and robust governance at the system level, the high-impact solutions we have identified could potentially double the global share of sustainable mobility from approximately 30% to 60% of pax-km within the next decade. However, none of the solutions has an impact of more than around 15% if adopted individually, so there are no shortcuts.
While the solutions exist and the potential for transformation is evident, the real challenge lies in their massive roll-out. Making the shift happen in practice requires overcoming the roadblocks that have been hindering progress to date—it will demand not only political will but also courage and determination, making the increased collaboration among public and private stakeholders within the extended mobility ecosystem a key element.
Transport authorities play a crucial role in accelerating this shift. To do so, they must reevaluate their roles, moving beyond their foundational 'framing' activities—such as establishing forward-looking mobility visions and suitable regulatory frameworks—towards more active 'enabling' ones. For this transition to succeed, they will require strong support and collaboration from stakeholders.
About the contributors:
Karen Vancluysen, Secretary General, POLIS. Vancluysen was appointed as Secretary General of POLIS in September 2014, after having been the network's Research Director for 8 years. Since 1998, she has been involved in urban mobility networking, innovation, and policy activities as well as a wide range of European urban transport research projects.
Francois-Joseph Van Audenhove, Managing Partner, Arthur. D. Little. Van Audenhove is Managing Partner and Global Head of Travel, Transportation, and Hospitality at Arthur D. Little Strategy Consultancy and heada the Future of Mobility Lab, Arthur D. Little's think tank on mobility futures. He is based in Brussels.
